Variation in percentages of positivity of PCR tests in the country, according to infographics of the national COE.
Coronavirus in Ecuador: PCR test positivity quintupled in Galapagos and doubled in Guayas and Santa Elena, according to the national COE
January 18, 2021
The positivity in PCR (molecular biology) samples to detect the SARS-CoV-2 virus , which causes the COVID-19 disease , has increased fivefold in Galapagos , quadrupled in Orellana , it has doubled in Guayas, Santo Domingo de los Tsáchilas and Santa Elena and has also increased in lower percentages in other 16 provinces of the country, according to the last four accumulated reports, calculated over a period of four epidemiological weeks each and detailed in infographics 304, 311, 318 and 325 of the Committee of National Emergency Operations (COE).
Those other 16 provinces are: Esmeraldas, Manabí, El Oro, Carchi, Imbabura, Pichincha, Cotopaxi, Bolívar, Tungurahua, Chimborazo, Azuay, Loja, Sucumbíos, Pastaza, Morona Santiago and Zamora Chinchipe.
Only in the case of Los Ríos, Cañar and Napo has the situation for the moment stabilized, although the percentage of positivity has also been growing in those provinces, which refers to the number of PCR samples that have been positive for every 100 tests processed in a certain location.
The situation in Guayas is as follows: between November 29 and December 26, of every 100 samples processed, only 14 were positive for COVID-19 infection and the remaining 86 were negative. Between December 6 and January 2, out of every 100 tests, 17 were confirmed cases and 83 were discarded. Between December 13 and January 9, out of every 100 samples, 21 were positive and 79 negative. And between December 20 and January 16 of this year, out of every 100 samples, 27 were confirmed cases and 73 were discarded. This means that the positivity in this province would have almost doubled, between the last month of 2020 and the first month of 2021, based on the national COE infographics, going from 14% to 27%, an increase of 92.86 %.
This recent percentage of positivity (27%), detected in the last four weeks, has already exceeded what happened in May 2020 in this province, where out of every 100 tests, 17 were positive (17% of positivity), and it is being approaching little by little (as a percentage of positivity, but not as a total of confirmed cases) to what happened last April in Guayas, where out of every 100 samples processed, 31 came out positive (31% positive) and 69 negative. Recall that the peak month in Guayas was last March , when out of every 100 samples, 51 came out positive and 49 negative, with a positivity of 51%, and the peak week there was between March 22 and 28, when out of every 100 tests , 56 were positive for contagion and 44 discarded, with a positivity of 56%.
If we only review Guayaquil , the situation is as follows: between last November 29 and December 26, out of every 100 samples processed, 19 were positive for COVID-19 infection and the remaining 81 were negative. Between December 6 and January 2, out of every 100 tests, 21 were confirmed cases and 79 were discarded. Between December 13 and January 9, out of every 100 samples, it remained at 21 positive and 79 negative. And between December 20 and January 16 of this year, out of every 100 samples, 25 were confirmed cases and 75 were discarded. This means that the positivity in this city, between the last month of 2020 and the first month of 2021, rose from 19% to 25%, an increase of 31.58%, lower in relation to the entire province of Guayas.
But the current 25% positivity in Guayaquil already exceeds almost double what happened last May (15%) and is close to what happened in April (regarding the percentage of positivity, not the total number of infections), when every 100 samples, 28 were positive and 72 negative.
The peak month in Guayaquil was March , when out of every 100 samples processed, 50 were positive and 50 negative, reaching a positivity of 50%, but the peak week in this city was between March 22 and 28, when out of every 100 tests , 56 came out as confirmed cases and only 44 as discarded, with a 56% positivity.
For its part, the Guayaquil COE Technical Board of Health , in its epidemiological report number 14, points out that in epidemiological week 2, from January 11 to 17, 2021, “there is a slight but sustained increase in suspected cases and confirmed COVID-19 “.
In that recent week, the incidence of suspected and probable cases in this city, based on every 10,000 inhabitants, went from 12.3 to 12.4 , a figure close to what happened in the last week of October, with an incidence of 12 , 45 for every 10,000 inhabitants. This means that out of every 10,000 people, at least 12 were suspected of carrying SARS-CoV-2, while the incidence of confirmed cases rose to 1.49 out of every 10,000 inhabitants, the highest in the last four months in Guayaquil . In addition, the transmission rate , adjusted to date, is 1.01 , published by this technical table, which means that an infected person could infect at least one other person on average.
According to that report, there is an “increase in suspected and confirmed cases of COVID-19, especially in seven sectors of Guayaquil: Socio Vivienda, Vergeles, Samanes, Alborada, Fertisa, Guasmo Norte and Urdesa.”
Twenty other provinces have in turn had small, medium and large increases in that percentage of positivity. One of the somewhat worrying increases occurs in Galapagos , where between November 29 and December 26, out of every 100 PCR samples, only 6 were positive and 94 negative, but according to the recent report of the national COE between December 20 and January 16, out of every 100 tests, now there are 30 confirmed cases and 70 discarded ones, so the positivity went from 6% to 30%.
In the case of Orellana, between November 29 and December 26, the percentage of positivity was 2% (2 out of every 100 samples were positive) and in the period between December 20 and January 16, this indicator rose to 9 % (9 new infected detected out of every 100 tests processed).
In Santo Domingo de los Tsáchilas, that percentage also had a significant increase and went from 17% (17 positives out of every 100 samples) to 38% (out of every 100 tests processed, 38 confirmed cases now appear).
And in Santa Elena there is another increase in positivity, rising from 16% (16 confirmed cases out of 100 tests) to 40% (40 samples have tested positive for contagion out of 100 recently processed).
Currently, the highest percentage of positivity is registered in the provinces of Carchi and Cotopaxi , with 42%, based on the last four weeks, followed by Santa Elena (40%) and Santo Domingo de los Tsáchilas (38%).
The situation in Pichincha , one of the provinces most affected by the pandemic, is as follows: between last November 29 and December 26, out of every 100 samples processed, only 14 were positive for COVID-19 and the remaining 86 were negative. Between December 6 and January 2, out of every 100 tests, 15 were confirmed cases and 85 were discarded. Between December 13 and January 9, out of every 100 samples, 16 were positive and 84 negative. And between December 20 and January 16 of this year, out of every 100 samples, 22 were confirmed cases and 78 were discarded. This means that the positivity in this province, according to infographics 304, 311, 318 and 325, between the last month of 2020 and the first month of 2021, went from 14% to 22%, an increase of 57.14%.
However, the recent percentage of positivity calculated in that province, although it is on the rise for the moment, would not worry so much, since it is lower than what was started there in the first months of the pandemic, as was March with a positivity of 24% or April with 38%, or later that even initially reached 53.6% positivity between August 16 and September 12 (period of four epidemiological weeks), as recorded in infographic 199 of the National COE, its temporary peak not of contagions, but of positive cases detected out of every 100 samples processed.
Between November 29 and December 26 (period of 28 days), Guayas and Pichincha were maintained, according to infographic 304 of the national COE, with the same percentage of positivity (14%); However, in Pichincha between those 28 days, according to figures from the Ministry of Public Health (MSP), three times as many samples have been processed than in Guayas, with 34,948 versus 11,646.
Since the pandemic began, 294,263 PCR samples have been processed in Pichincha , of which 27.57% were positive for COVID-19 infection, while in Guayas there were 107,564 tests , of which 27.82% resulted as confirmed cases.
Read the entire coverage from El Universo at https://www.eluniverso.com/noticias/2021/01/18/nota/9594052/coronavirus-ecuador-covid-19-positividad-guayas-pichincha-casos
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